Investors were rattled by volatility in 2011. Intraday swings of three digits are frustrating; but, to put it in perspective, given the roller coaster ride we experienced this year, the S&P 500 is only up fractionally +.61% as of this posting. Expect markets to be punctuated by this type of volatility in 2012 as the events that are causing financial markets to fluctuate have not been addressed. Indeed, we live in interesting times, where politics and policy are driving financial markets far more than fundamentals.
Political Gridlock and Uncertainty
Developed economies such as the United Kingdom, United States, and Eurozone nations such as Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain, among others, are facing increasing unsustainable debt levels. Proposed austerity measures are tough medicine at a time when these countries are trying to emerge from recession. Ideally, there will ultimately be a “goldilocks” solution that reduces spending just enough to fix these issues long term but that is not so stringent as to choke off nascent signs of recovery.
Giant Holding Pattern
Politicians in the midst of an election year here in the United States are loathe to compromise by creating long term structural solutions to the debt situation we face in this country. This only exacerbates the issue long term by delaying the inevitable. Past neglect of this issue has come to roost and the recipe for growth and debt reduction will require sacrifices all around in the form of invariable tax increases as well as substantial reform of entitlement programs, particularly Medicare. What the ultimate form of these changes will be is highly dependent on who wins the election in 2012.
Consumers and business owners alike are delaying spending decisions due to uncertainties over taxes and regulations post 2012. There are just too many unanswered questions. Considering there will be a year’s worth of dickering, there will be precious little time to plan for the inevitable changes in 2013. What will the personal income tax structure look like? What about the estate tax system? Will states and local municipalities under pressure to balance budgets institute additional taxes and pension reforms? What will the Supreme Court decide with respect to the legality of the Healthcare Reform Bill and can it even be implemented cost effectively in its current form? The multitude of issues that remain unresolved only serves to “enhance the dance” of financial markets.
European Debt Woes Persist
The resolution of the debt problems in the Eurozone remains uncertain with parliaments of the 17 countries having to agree upon terms in a timely fashion that ultimately may undermine their own sovereignty. Since over 1.1 Trillion Euros of debt need to be refinanced in 2012, many of it in the first quarter, this will be a potential catalyst for a market meltdown (or upswing if meaningful reforms that have accountability are instituted). Many options are possible including the dissolution of the Euro, certain profligate countries returning to their past currency in order to inflate their way out of their debt situation, or increased fiscal coordination and enforcement among Eurozone nations with Germany, the wealthiest of the Eurozone nations, taking on a more formal leadership role.
Prolonged Hangover after the Debt Binge
Globally, we are experiencing the aftermath of a credit bubble that burst from consumers overindulging in easy credit to buy things they could not necessarily afford in order to satiate the appetite of investments bankers addicted to the financial products they invented. The insidious leverage that resulted became a toxin that global banks, governments and consumers are now trying to purge from their systems. This will take a while to unwind. The shadow inventory of homes in America alone will take upwards of 4 years to work its way out of the system.
Glimmers of Hope in Recent Economic Data
Economists and pundits are taking cover in the recent spate of positive economic trends. Whereas these data would be disappointing when compared to data from more robust periods pre-2007, or even when compared to recoveries from recent post-war recessions, they are being touted as positive relative to recent moribund performance.
Apparently less than terrible is the new good. To wit:
Resilient consumer spending has been at expense of a declining personal savings rate and spurred most likely by continued government transfer payments such as unemployment benefits and payroll tax cuts as well as recent declines in gasoline prices.
Employment is picking up, but primarily because discouraged workers are leaving the work force. Job increases have been skewed towards lower paying service jobs. A more accurate measure of unemployment using the U6 unemployment gauge indicates a rate of unemployment of roughly 15.6% as of the end of November.
Housing activity has perked up lately, but primarily due to an increase in multi-family dwelling units. Demand is still not meeting supply, driving single family home prices down. Furthermore, an increase in the supply of rental units will force rental rates lower.
Taming the Inflation Beast-The Silver Lining to a Slowdown in Emerging Markets
Strong growth in emerging markets has abated putting downward pressure on raw material prices and crude oil. Look for sluggish growth here to create a disinflationary, if not deflationary trend. After all, reduced oil prices are similar to a tax cut for consumers which provides helpful ballast to spending as we attempt to resurrect ourselves from this recession. These developing countries also have more latitude to reduce their interest rates to spur growth, ammunition that America does not have given our historically low interest rates. Look for these emerging markets to be a potential bright spot among the clouded performance of developed nations.
In summary, expect continued volatility, sluggish global growth (if not a recession in Europe), and potentially a large market correction in response to an exogenous geopolitical shock. If a shock occurs due to problems in Europe or strife in the Middle East, it could be the catalyst for contagion such that the United States and other developed nation as well as emerging market countries slip into recession. My wish and hope for the new year is a hope for the best– that cooler heads will prevail in government and that mitigating events only serve to precipitate politicians to construct meaningful policies and reforms that will result in future global growth and prosperity.